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Playoff Odds and Remarks 2018-2019 Season


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#1 Adam

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Posted October 19, 2018 - 07:54 AM

Hey everyone! We had a similar thread like this last season. I wanted to make a thread where we could discuss our playoff chances throughout the season. And kind of like a pre and post game day appreciation thread. Like if we wanted to comment on multiple games, I don’t know of a thread we can comment in. For example something of interest for me is how we’d match up against NOLA. Davis, Mirotic, Randle (even if he’s undersized he’s strong). We had problems last night against the blazers. We scored a lot in the paint and that was great but we’re couldn’t stop their bigs when ours sat down. We got killed near the end of the third and the fourth. They kept blocking all our shots and it was one defensive stop after the other for them.

What did y’all think about the game? First 36 minutes was solid. The last twelve...not so much
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#2 -Wade-

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Posted October 19, 2018 - 08:43 AM

Regarding the first game, it was 48 minutes of poor perimeter defense. Couldn't hit a shot from 3 either until we missed 15 straight. Could've done better on a lot of things, for example, better rebounding and reduced turnovers. Don't want to be a complete "negative Nancy" though -- although LeBron could've been more aggressive offensively down the stretch, I liked how he got the team involved. I still maintain that LeBron+Ingram will be a deadly combo, and we saw a glimpse of that last night. Rondo brought a lot to the game, which is great because I have long thought that he is going to help Ball grow and hold his feet to the fire.

 

Loved what I saw from Hart last night. A little disappointed with KCP, but I think he will come together a little more.

 

A bit early for playoff odds, but I'll be back to this thread later for that.


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#3 LakeShow1o1

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Posted October 19, 2018 - 10:45 AM

I see us competing anywhere between a 3rd and 6th seed.

 

As Wade mentioned, it's to early to really make any claims or statements, but judging the makeup of our team and Lebron's history with teams in general, I think it's reasonable.

 

- Solely off of last nights first game, it's evident that Lebron is willing to play within the system and our guys have bought into the style of play that Luke has embedded.  With that being said, it was a terrible shooting performance, a high turnover count (understandable due to chemistry and other factors), as well as poor closing out of the perimeter defensively.

 

- Historically speaking, when Lebron joins a new team, it takes a good amount of games for the squad to establish themselves.  I see us dropping a pretty good amount of games in the early part of the season.

 

- As far as other off-season acquisitions, JaVale, Lance, and Rondo will get the job done and provide a good spark every now and then.  Hopefully Wagner can emerge as a quality role player with time.

 

- The most obvious concern and has been so from the start was our 3PT shooting.  It was evident in last nights game and will likely be an inconsistency that plays out throughout the remainder of the year.  Guys just gotta hit their shots. 



#4 Saber

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Posted October 20, 2018 - 01:58 AM

Laker fans are pretty impatient, I'm impatient as well. We expect big things from this team right away and the truth is it ain't happening. They really do need time to gel together. If we are .500 or better come Christmas it will be a good starting point to attack the mid playoff spots.
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#5 last stand 2.0

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Posted October 20, 2018 - 09:37 AM

Ya I think the main thing is it’s hard to judge anyone or anything yet simply because when you overhaul an entire roster like this it’s not exactly easy

Take Boston for example. Reinserting guys like Hayward and Irving has made them a tad disjointed

That’s also early season lack of cohesion

Come playoffs I have no question Boston will be in the ECF if healthy

When you insert a player of lebrons caliber, and then you have 2 other new starters it’s going to be rough. There will be turnovers and there will be missed assignments defensively

Shooting woes will be a constant however there are means to fix it on the roster but none of those fixes are guarantees

Things like playing Wagner and svi (who knows if they translate to nba basketball yet) or starting hart (who knows if they’ll do it) or Ingram shooting a high percentage on 3 point jumpers with a high volume (he shot well from there last year at a low volume)

These things are all up in the air. But those things for example working out are things that’ll significantly improve our shooting issues

Also I really don’t believe this is the final roster for this season, we have an abundance of youth, and an abundance of expirings come December. I have a feeling that’ll be used come December because when push comes to shove we have a ton of overlap on this roster. Enough that you could deal a bit of it and still be 2 deep

It’s a process

Just hoping that Wagner and svi get looks on the floor because both guys can shoot and move very well so I’d like the lakers early season to see what those guys have
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#6 Adam

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Posted October 24, 2018 - 12:35 PM

I don’t like the 0-3 start but I’ve seen improvements in each game.
We were able to hang with the rockets until the fight. It was 109-108 rockets up. And we hung with the spurs all the way to the end. We can argue it shouldn’t have gone to overtime or that LeBron should have drived to the baske for the last shot - he had ample time for it. Or those last two free throws. Say a stat that said LeBron hasn’t been so good from the free throw line in similar situations but I think his career average is mid seventies. At best he’s a decent free throw shooter.

But I’m excited for the next week. We have five games in eight days with a back to back today and tomorrow against the suns and the nuggets.

Some things I’ve liked so far - Josh Hart is outplaying KCP. KCP is averaging a little over 20 minutes and Hart 30+ off the bench. Kuzma is finding his groove. Playing small ball five is certainly an adjustment for him but he’s proving he can score. I had hoped they’d feed him some more through the end of the game but it is what it is. Lonzo has shown improvement game to game. Shots better or at least with more confidence. His form is still wack but it’s going in so we can live with it.

I hope they figure out a way to bolster our front court. Javale is good but he can only play 20-25 minutes a night. And he fouls like that too. When you know you’re only playing about 20 minutes, you’ll take more chances. If you know you’re playing 35 minutes you have to be more careful.

After we get to 10+ games, I’ll start posting stuff about playoff odds versus other teams every five to ten games. Go Lakers!!

#7 bfc1125roy

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Posted October 24, 2018 - 05:38 PM

Our offense is garbage, and we can't keep giving up 130 ppg on defense either.

 

Either something changes coaching wise, or we likely miss the playoffs/7-8 seed.

 

Right now the following teams are better than us/playing better than us:

1. Rockets

2. Warriors

3. Blazers

4. Thunder

5. Jazz

6. Nuggets

 

These 4 teams will be competing for the last 2 spots:

1. Timberwolves

2. Spurs

3. Pelicans

4. Lakers

 

It's not a given we make the playoffs right now. Lots of work to be done. Too many people are using "team chemistry" as a blanket excuse, but there are serious execution flaws that have more to do with coaching than getting used to one another.



#8 Japago

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Posted October 24, 2018 - 09:00 PM

Our offense is garbage, and we can't keep giving up 130 ppg on defense either.

 

Either something changes coaching wise, or we likely miss the playoffs/7-8 seed.

 

Right now the following teams are better than us/playing better than us:

1. Rockets

2. Warriors

3. Blazers

4. Thunder

5. Jazz

6. Nuggets

 

These 4 teams will be competing for the last 2 spots:

1. Timberwolves

2. Spurs

3. Pelicans

4. Lakers

 

It's not a given we make the playoffs right now. Lots of work to be done. Too many people are using "team chemistry" as a blanket excuse, but there are serious execution flaws that have more to do with coaching than getting used to one another.

 

OKC isn't playing better. They lost to the Kings at home. The Lakers and OKC are definitely the worst 2 teams so far out of all the teams looking to make the playoffs though.

 

I think I agree with the playoff locks. Even though OKC is playing badly right now, I think Westbrook, Paul George, and a decent supporting cast are too talented to miss it.

 

If the Timberwolves actually end up trading Jimmy Butler, that's one team that drops out of the race.

 

The Pelicans are playing really well right now, and they were one of the best teams in the West at the end of last season. I think they've figured out how to play well with each other, and Randle seems like he's fitting in well so far. So, I think they may be a lock too.

 

So, I think it could be Lakers vs Spurs for the final playoff spot. And, the Spurs have already beaten the Lakers once and are currently playing better.


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#9 Tensai

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Posted October 24, 2018 - 09:36 PM

Top 4: GS, Nuggets, Jazz, Rockets

Bottom 4 lock: Pelicans, Lakers

Remaining two: Thunder, Blazers, Wolves, Spurs*

 

* if Derozan and Aldridge are healthy

 

I would be very surprised (and even more angry at that point of season) if we miss the playoffs. Our record will pick up after 20 games.


Edited by Tensai, October 24, 2018 - 09:38 PM.

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#10 DanishLakerFan

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 03:21 AM

Hey guys. Been out for a while, but happy to see that the nba is back on.

 

As for the playoff odds, i think the most likely scenario is that we end up somewhere between a 3rd and 6th seed, but teams like the Blazers, Clips, Memphis, Minny, SA etc. aren't going to roll over and i think there is a decent chance that they make changes during the season.



#11 Jody Smokes

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 04:09 AM

Teams a trying a lot of weird ish this year so we won't see who's who until like Dec.  Memphis aint going nowhere though.  That core has like 2-3 years overdue.


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#12 BasketballIQ

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 08:05 AM

Memphis can win 40 games if the big 2 are healthy. Bug if

#13 Jody Smokes

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 08:28 AM

I disagree.  Marc was kinda bad last year and I don't believe that was because the team was bad.  They also have a lot of one dimensional players to fill out their roster.  I like that Jaren Jackson Jr kid tho

 

Memphis can win 40 games if the big 2 are healthy. Bug if


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#14 Persian Gulf

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 11:30 AM

lakers will be in the playoffs, greater than 6 seed. mark my words



#15 Adam

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 02:59 PM

I like how you qualified your list by saying they’re either just better than us or playing better.

A few things I’d like to point out for why I don’t entirely agree with your list though. First, The blazers and the jazz basically have the same team as last year. They were both playoff teams so naturally they’d look better than us. But to say they’re the better team? I think that’s too much credit. At this point in the season they’re playing better than us but I think as the team comes together, we’ll pull ahead of them. This is all circumstantial right now and we’ll have a much clearer picture soon. We have five games in 8 days. We beat the suns last night but that’s not exactly something to write home about. But it’s a start. We have to win the games we’re supposed to win. In the loaded west, no games off. Especially since last year the difference between the third and ninth seed was like three games. The only teams that I’d say are head and shoulders ahead of us are the warriors and the rockets. Granted they had a lot of personal turnover so maybe that gap has gotten smaller. The other teams all won less than 50 games last year so all of em are within reach.

My bad, got sidetracked and went on a tangent 😅. So the blazers and jazz return the same team and there’s only so much more than can get out of their teams. Sure Donavan is going to be better but enough to vault his team ahead of the pack? Idk. One thing that concerns me with the jazz, and really any team with a good front court, is Gobert. He’s going to eat us alive.

Which is one reason why I think of all the bottom playoff teams, we have to watch out for the pelicans the most. They can match our pace, our outside shooting is equally poor (I feel like they’re better but idk), and they’ll kill us in the paint.

So I’d change your list to something like:

Warriors > Rockets >>> jazz, blazers > thunder >> Lakers, pelicans, nuggets > spurs, Timberwolves

Might seem odd, but let me try and explain. Warriors are the warriors. Rockets won 60+ games last year so they’ve earned this spot. It’s theirs until they do something to lose it. Jazz and blazers have continuity. Thunder have continuity but some roster turnover. I honestly think it’ll make em better once Russ starts playing. Carmelo wasn’t a good fit and Robertson has recovered now. I think. Lakers, nuggets and pelicans still have a lot to prove. We have LeBron. AD and the pelicans are smashing teams left and right. And the nuggets have been making consistent upward progress. They have a lot of shooters a great big man. But all three teams need to earn their stripes. Spurs and twolves I put in the last tier because I honestly don’t think they’re as good as the other teams.


Our offense is garbage, and we can't keep giving up 130 ppg on defense either.

Either something changes coaching wise, or we likely miss the playoffs/7-8 seed.

Right now the following teams are better than us/playing better than us:
1. Rockets
2. Warriors
3. Blazers
4. Thunder
5. Jazz
6. Nuggets

These 4 teams will be competing for the last 2 spots:
1. Timberwolves
2. Spurs
3. Pelicans
4. Lakers

It's not a given we make the playoffs right now. Lots of work to be done. Too many people are using "team chemistry" as a blanket excuse, but there are serious execution flaws that have more to do with coaching than getting used to one another.



#16 Adam

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 03:07 PM

Our next five games will tell us a lot. We have the nuggets tonight. Spurs again on Saturday. We really need to win that game for tie breakers. Just in case bc rn we’re both bottom seed playoff teams. Twolves on Monday the 29th. Mavs on the 31. The mavs aren’t complete trash but we should win that game. That’s a game to tell us if we can take care of business. And then we have the blazers again on sat November 3rd.

What I like about this schedule is we get to see what this team is really made of. The spurs and blazers got one over us already. If we beat them, then all this talk of we just need time to gel etc, it becomes real talk and not an excuse. But if we lose...than I’d start to be more concerned. We’re developing a better rotation. Hart’s already taken KCPs spot. Stephenson’s role is becoming more defined. He-can’t-play-because-he-has-Asthma- javale McGee is showing he can ball and play more minutes. He had 26 minutes the other night I think. And he made that nice three so I really liked that. I think all these small adjustments and improvements should enable us to get these wins. I don’t expect us to rip off a 6 game wining streak, but damn it’d be nice. When was the last time it happened?


Anyone care to say what they think will happen?

Vs nuggets at home - Loss
Vs Spurs away - win
Vs Timberwolves away - win
Vs mavs at home - win
Vs blazers away - win
Vs raptors home back to back - loss

Record: 5-5 through the first ten games

#17 Jackson

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 05:48 PM

Our next five games will tell us a lot. We have the nuggets tonight. Spurs again on Saturday. We really need to win that game for tie breakers. Just in case bc rn we’re both bottom seed playoff teams. Twolves on Monday the 29th. Mavs on the 31. The mavs aren’t complete trash but we should win that game. That’s a game to tell us if we can take care of business. And then we have the blazers again on sat November 3rd.

What I like about this schedule is we get to see what this team is really made of. The spurs and blazers got one over us already. If we beat them, then all this talk of we just need time to gel etc, it becomes real talk and not an excuse. But if we lose...than I’d start to be more concerned. We’re developing a better rotation. Hart’s already taken KCPs spot. Stephenson’s role is becoming more defined. He-can’t-play-because-he-has-Asthma- javale McGee is showing he can ball and play more minutes. He had 26 minutes the other night I think. And he made that nice three so I really liked that. I think all these small adjustments and improvements should enable us to get these wins. I don’t expect us to rip off a 6 game wining streak, but damn it’d be nice. When was the last time it happened?


Anyone care to say what they think will happen?

Vs nuggets at home - Loss
Vs Spurs away - win
Vs Timberwolves away - win
Vs mavs at home - win
Vs blazers away - win
Vs raptors home back to back - loss

Record: 5-5 through the first ten games


5-5 is a good compromise but we can easily be worse than that.

#18 Adam

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Posted October 25, 2018 - 09:22 PM

Very solid game against the Nuggets tonight. I've been very concerned for how thin our frontcourt is and how we'd manage against teams with very good big men like the Nuggets. Jokic is a beast and even though we were outscored heavily for points in the paint, we still did a good job. JaVale played almost 32 minutes. i don't even know when the last time he played that much and he has two back to back games with 20+ points. the extra minutes are really helping him.

 

Lonzo looks like he really wants that first team all-nba defense. he had five steals tonight. two against the suns last night i think. only been five games but pretty sure he's easily averaging 2+ a game so far. i like how he keeps his arms to the side and even behind him on defense sometimes and avoid those simple reaching fouls I've seen our other young guys get called for.

 

Kuzma, stephenson, hart, all solid games. Lebron played 34 mintues tonight so his minutes were under control. really liking the progress we're making.

 

feel much more confident for my 5-5 estimate now. Go Lakers!!



#19 Saber

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Posted October 26, 2018 - 02:14 AM

5-5 would be great after that unfortunite 0-3

#20 DanishLakerFan

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Posted October 26, 2018 - 03:04 AM

https://projects.fiv...ba-predictions/

 

FiveThirtyEight have us 9th, which is pretty damn good considering we have a completely new roster compared to last year. That Nuggets win was huge


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