Maybe not the best title, but that is all I could find.
I have researched on the first 4 years of current as well as past young sensations, and tried to find out a pattern to categorize them into "Allstar/Superstar" level potential, and how soon they reached them if they were that good.
I will first say this. My criteria is in no way objective, as I cannot verify it without a large amount of data. But when I listed a group of players, I was able to find a large correlation.
So the criteria is this:
In first 4 years (rookie contract), reach all the categories at once within 5% tolerance.
1. 4.0 free throw attempts per game
2. 0.3 free throw rate (free throw attempt / field goal attempt)
3. 20 PER
First of all, I will list some of the notable players and when they were able to "break out" on to the next level.
And the following list is the players that rank in Top 20 on FTA/game in 2017/18 season. FTA/game, FTA Rate and PER are listed, as well as their experience in the league and if they satisfy the criteria or not. You will find that next to some of the players there is a ✔, and next to some there is ✘. They represent whether they were able to satisfy the criteria within alloted time (i.e. first 4 years). And on some of them there is a question mark, which indicates that player is yet to satisfy the criteria but he has time to do it.
This kind of approach might be useful to assess the young talent, as well as what could their next contract be?