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De-Mystifying 2014 Free Agency


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#1 hipster.doofus7

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 10:00 AM

Players who won't actually be available:

  • LeBron
  • Wade
  • Bosh
  • Paul George
  • DeMarcus Cousins
  • Dirk Nowitzki
  • Luol Deng
  • Carmelo Anthony

 

Players who will actually be available:

  • Rudy Gay
  • Danny Granger
  • Zach Randolph

 

 

Let's get this out of the way:  LeBron, Wade, and Bosh ain't opting out next summer.  They've been to the NBA Finals 3+ straight years.  They've won back-to-back titles, which could turn into a three-peat.  Last week, Bosh said he wants to finish his career in Miami.  People who think that LeBron will be leaving Miami 12 months from now are delusional.  Just stop that nonsense already.  I'm not saying LeBron will be in Miami forever.  His contract lets him leave anytime in 2016, 2015, or 2014.  But he ain't leaving in 2014.  The most realistic time frame for a LeBron-Watch would be 2015.  It has become almost customary for superstars to opt out of the final year of their contract, and sign a new long term deal for financial security.  For LeBron, that would be in the Summer of 2015.

 

Restricted free agents like Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins aren't going anywhere.  They belong to teams that are well under the salary cap.  There's basically 0.00% chance their current teams won't match whatever offer sheet they sign in the market.  The only restricted free agents who are likely to leave via free agency are the ones who have disappointing seasons in 2013.  The good ones ain't going nowhere.

 

Dirk is old, and he already said he'll retire in Dallas even if they're rebuilding.  Luol Deng is currently in negotiations for a contract extension.  He won't even hit the market in 2014.  Carmelo Anthony can opt out of his contract next summer, but that means he'd have to leave $24M on the table.  The Lakers can only offer him half that amount if they still have Dwight on the roster.  I can't imagine Carmelo taking such a huge paycut.  If the Lakers do not have Dwight, then they can offer Carmelo the max.  But then... why would they rebuild around a 30-year old star who is a terrible fit with Kobe?

 

So which All-Stars will actually be available next summer?  Rudy Gay.  Danny Granger.  Zach Randolph.  That's pretty much it.  There is no free agency bonanza in 2014.  That doesn't happen until 2015, when Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and (possibly) Carmelo will all be looking for new long-term deals.

 

So in summary, the Free Agency Class of 2014 will be bad.  Very Bad.  The Free Agency Class of 2015 will be good.  Very good.


Edited by hipster.doofus7, June 28, 2013 - 10:00 AM.


#2 KobeBeef24

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 10:13 AM

tbh, I think Rudy stays in Toronto if they can become a playoff team this season with him and Lowry together.



#3 BasketballIQ

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 10:40 AM

philly just traded Jrue Holiday, after his best season.

 

 

With th eNBA, good players become available every season, sometimes it's via trade.

 

technically LeBron and bosh were traded



#4 Jody Smokes

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 10:40 AM

I'd take Rudy on the roster with Howard for an affordable price.  He's actually a pretty good player, just was extremely overpaid.


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#5 Nego

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 11:27 AM

Agreed well said.


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#6 gque24

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 11:52 AM

Dirk is washed up & was stank last season = it will only get worse from here on out

 

Deng is a bum = why even mention these 2 ? Lakers dont need either guy no matter what.


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#7 DTIII™

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 11:55 AM

A longshot but I would love if we got Paul George.


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#8 David

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 03:01 PM

A longshot but I would love if we got Paul George.

I would love Paul George only if Dwight stays. I do not want Paul George if we are going to build around him as our future. Howard is a franchise player. George is an all-star. If we can pair those two in 2014, that would be nice.


Edited by Admiral General Aladeen, June 28, 2013 - 03:02 PM.

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#9 West Coast

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 04:27 PM

philly just traded Jrue Holiday, after his best season.

 

 

With th eNBA, good players become available every season, sometimes it's via trade.

 

technically LeBron and bosh were traded

 

Of course, but teams that trade for them also have the assets to acquire big time players.

 

Going forward, we have cap space and limited draft picks.



#10 DTIII™

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 07:39 PM

I would love Paul George only if Dwight stays. I do not want Paul George if we are going to build around him as our future. Howard is a franchise player. George is an all-star. If we can pair those two in 2014, that would be nice.

Yeah, I don't think PG is a franchise guy but he's damn nice.


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#11 BasketballIQ

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 07:51 PM

West Coast, maybe because the Lakers haven't done it in a while, but teams will trade you a guy just because you will eat the contract or another contract for them.

 

 

We don't have any young talent, but we can sign and trade during that time. So think of 2014 as the start of a 3 year process, just like the Shaq trade



#12 DanishLakerFan

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Posted June 28, 2013 - 10:23 PM

Players who won't actually be available:

  • LeBron
  • Wade
  • Bosh
  • Paul George
  • DeMarcus Cousins
  • Dirk Nowitzki
  • Luol Deng
  • Carmelo Anthony

 

Players who will actually be available:

  • Rudy Gay
  • Danny Granger
  • Zach Randolph

 

 

Let's get this out of the way:  LeBron, Wade, and Bosh ain't opting out next summer.  They've been to the NBA Finals 3+ straight years.  They've won back-to-back titles, which could turn into a three-peat.  Last week, Bosh said he wants to finish his career in Miami.  People who think that LeBron will be leaving Miami 12 months from now are delusional.  Just stop that nonsense already.  I'm not saying LeBron will be in Miami forever.  His contract lets him leave anytime in 2016, 2015, or 2014.  But he ain't leaving in 2014.  The most realistic time frame for a LeBron-Watch would be 2015.  It has become almost customary for superstars to opt out of the final year of their contract, and sign a new long term deal for financial security.  For LeBron, that would be in the Summer of 2015.

 

Restricted free agents like Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins aren't going anywhere.  They belong to teams that are well under the salary cap.  There's basically 0.00% chance their current teams won't match whatever offer sheet they sign in the market.  The only restricted free agents who are likely to leave via free agency are the ones who have disappointing seasons in 2013.  The good ones ain't going nowhere.

 

Dirk is old, and he already said he'll retire in Dallas even if they're rebuilding.  Luol Deng is currently in negotiations for a contract extension.  He won't even hit the market in 2014.  Carmelo Anthony can opt out of his contract next summer, but that means he'd have to leave $24M on the table.  The Lakers can only offer him half that amount if they still have Dwight on the roster.  I can't imagine Carmelo taking such a huge paycut.  If the Lakers do not have Dwight, then they can offer Carmelo the max.  But then... why would they rebuild around a 30-year old star who is a terrible fit with Kobe?

 

So which All-Stars will actually be available next summer?  Rudy Gay.  Danny Granger.  Zach Randolph.  That's pretty much it.  There is no free agency bonanza in 2014.  That doesn't happen until 2015, when Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and (possibly) Carmelo will all be looking for new long-term deals.

 

So in summary, the Free Agency Class of 2014 will be bad.  Very Bad.  The Free Agency Class of 2015 will be good.  Very good.

Lebron could opt out next season. With the Heat barely winning this year where all other contenders we're injured it still took two game 7s and two bad coaching decisions and a wild last-second 3 from Ray Allen for them to win. Unless they somehow manage to get some significant improvements next season, they wont make it to the finals. Bosh and Wade are not playing like all-stars but are paid like superstars and will not opt out, regardless of what happens. LBJ on the other hand could very well opt out and try to go to a contender. 

Dirk will stay in Dallas. George and Cousins would have to force their way out.

Deng is on the market this year - and if Dwight stays i wouldn't be surprised if the Lakers did a Pau for Deng trade. 

Both Z-Bo and Gay have player options. Gay is young and could opt out, but not Z-Bo.

Granger will be a FA, but who knows what he has left. 

Like the Heat, the Knicks have few options going forward regarding their roster and if they end up being bumped in the second round i think Melo would consider opting out and signing in LA - if Dwight and Kobe are here.  






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