The heat really is difficult to predict at this point - but if Wade is 100%, if the roleplayers (Haslem, Allen, Anderson, Battier) provide the usual production and if Oden and Beasley work out, they could easily win it all.
In the real world, Wade probably isn't going to be 100% - i honestly predict a quite steep drop-off. The roleplayers are older, which is ok if you Kawhi Leonard (22), but if you're Allen (38), Haslem (33), Anderson (35) or Battier (35), getting older will really take its toll. I also doubt that Oden ever really gets going, which is kind of sad. Beasley could be the one addition that works out. All this considered i expect the Heat to lose in the second round.
In the east, i think Bulls, Nets and Pacers can beat them. Maybe the Knicks.
In the west, i think Spurs, OKC and Golden State can beat them.