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The economic situation – and Steve Nash


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#1 DanishLakerFan

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 05:58 AM

I think it’s quite clear that the Lakers are forced to do something with the current roster, regardless of what happens in the off-season. The 85 million in the new luxury-tax as well as the 50 million in revenue-sharing and the potential taxation of the “new” owners (i.e. Jerry Buss’ kids) will hit very hard.

 

Using the amnesty on Kobe would be the easiest way to save money. However, that shouldn’t be an option unless Dwight decides to sign elsewhere. Why? Because the only thing that have changed is that Kobe will miss the first few months of the season, perhaps more, but most likely less – at least according to Dr. Robert Klapper.

 

The way Pau and Dwight have worked together recently would also suggest that trading Pau or using the amnesty on him is a bad idea, unless we’re getting back another cheaper all-star.

So what’s the play?

 

IMO there are many options:

1. First of all, there have been rumblings about the cap being raised next season. The salary cap is basically set as a percentage of the total expected revenue and this year’s economic success could raise the cap 5 million – in luxury tax-terms this could be 15 million or more.

 

2. There is also the amnesty provision and I think Metta is the most likely candidate. Taking his 7.7 million off the books saves about 30 million. His defense and floor-spacing would have to be replaced, but with the mini-midlevel, that shouldn’t be a problem. A guy like

 

3. Duhon is another option. His salary is only partially guaranteed, which means he can be traded for a future pick so another team can save money OR he can be waived which saves the team about 2,2 million.

 

4. Looking at the new CBA there are a few other options: In 2013-14 all teams are required to have a payroll of at least 90% of the cap. This is interesting, because it allows the Lakers to perhaps trade a few of their players to teams that need to raise their payroll. This means that there is a good chance that both Blake and Duhon can be moved without taking on bad contracts. For instance, Steve Blake is owed 4 million next season, which means he can be moved for a player worth 2,6 million – thus saving 1,4 million.

 

Add these things together, move or sign a few guys (vet-minimun and mini-midlevel) and we're looking at a luxury-tax closer to 50 million, than the 85 million. Still a lot, but given the fact that the Lakers are used to pay a lot of tax-money and they wont be paying any at all next season, i think they'd be ok with a bit extra this season.

 

Then there is the Steve Nash situation. He is currently injured and according to Dr. Klapper, he may be out for a long time. The doctor sounded more worried about Nash, than Kobe. At age 39, there is actually a chance that he never really recovers which gives the Lakers a chance to remove him from the cap, due to career-ending injury. Also, they may use the “stretch provision” following the next season to get as far under the cap as possible.

If he's healthy i think there is a chance he can be moved.

 

What do you guys think our options are?

 



#2 Piston Honda

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 06:31 AM

I think Pau needs to be traded regardless of how well he has played with Howard  the last few weeks and upcoming playoffs. At 32, Pau is probably going to want a costly, long term deal. Do you really want him in P&G when he's 35+?

 

I'm also hoping that Nash & Kobe (I'm a doubter on his comeback) decide to retire and open up a ton of cap space.



#3 Real Deal

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 06:41 AM

The Nash situation is complicated, because we really don't know the extent of the injury, and he's been playing hurt for a long, long time (with back issues), so it's hard to imagine him retiring or going out with a career-ending injury.  I can see him trying to play again.

 

If we use the amnesty, obviously, it's for Ron Artest.  We'll need to find a credible three, though, unless we plan on moving Kobe up.  I wouldn't have an issue with that if we decide to bring in a guy like CDR.

 

The Lakers really need to pay close attention to this upcoming draft, because there are a few guy who may drop completely off the board who could land a roster spot, unlike what we saw with DJO as a second-rounder.

 

If a guy like Ryan Kelly falls out of the 60, he'd be a replacement for Jamison...who will have to have surgery on his wrist and may not be back with us next year.

 

For those who are curious about our payroll: http://hoopshype.com...s/la_lakers.htm



#4 DanishLakerFan

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 08:14 AM

Let's hope Nash is fine. Best case he comes back during the playoffs and shows what he can do with Kobe out - i doubt Blake can keep playing like this. If Nash comes back there is also a possibiliy that they try to move him.

 

I think using the amnesty on Metta is a must and replacing him shouldn't be that difficult.

 

Unfortunately, i think the Lakers are forced to get rid of either Hill or Clark. Hill have a lot of value at this point. There simply isn't enough minutes for the both of them in the frontcout.



#5 Real Deal

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 08:52 AM

Unfortunately, i think the Lakers are forced to get rid of either Hill or Clark. Hill have a lot of value at this point. There simply isn't enough minutes for the both of them in the frontcout.

I think you can give them enough time on the court to keep both.  Hill is a PF/C, since the league is getting smaller...and Earl Clark does share minutes at the three with Ron Artest (primarily at the four, though).

 

So, you have three positions for two backups to cover.  If we're removing Ron from the equation, and assuming Kobe will play the two and three (whether or not he's a primary three will be disputed as he plays back into form, many factors will indicate it), then we can run with a frontcourt that doesn't include Sacre and Jamison (don't see Jamison returning for us, but who knows).



#6 GCMD

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 08:59 AM

Seriously doubt they amnesty Kobe or Nash...both make us a lot of money in revenue despite their salaries and are pretty much tough as nails when it comes to playing thru injuries.

 

 

MWP would be a serious option but that will be a last resort time deal.  I think they try to package him and Pau to land a good player and take on a SERVICEABLE bad contract.  Pau is a HUGE expiring contract...and their are a LOT of people looking ahead to the 2014 draft (Wiggins, Gordon, etc) and also looking to get way under the cap for the LeBron Sweepstakes in 2014.  People also want to sweep their roster of bad contracts to prevent paying the new punitive repeater luxury tax (especially for small market teams) and rebuild with younger, cheaper players thru the draft.  Pau may not command as much in the offseason but as it gets closer and closer to the trade deadline of 2014, he will be a VERY hot commodity...hot enough to jettison MWP along with him and return multiple useful pieces.  2 players I'd like to see them acquire?  Batum and JJ Hickson...land them for Pau and we've had a good day.

 

 

IF that doesn't work and we can't find anyone to take MWP off our hands, then we look at amnestying MWP...then and only then...

 

You don't amnesty Blake or Duhon...it's a waste.

 

As for money...we have plenty of revenue.  It's just paying the right people what they are worth and getting rid of players that won't maximize Dwight's prime.  Ideally, we only pay $45 mil or less to our top 3 players with only 3 players in double digit millions.  The rest of the squad is filled with youth and/or role players who are paid like role players.  That would put us right at the lux tax threshold...

 

 

And one thing to note...as the CAP goes up, so does the LUX tax threshold...which is a good thing for teams already in the lux tax...it means we will pay less tax while maintaining the same salary...if the cap and lux tax move up 5 mil, we automatically SAVE $15M, assuming we don't acquire salary in the offseason...



#7 GCMD

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 09:02 AM

Hill and Clark are keepers.  They are role players who have both youth and athleticism.  Both are above avg defenders.  And both are on very cap friendly contracts.  They are what we need more of, not less.

 

As far as minutes, neither complains.  Neither pouts.  Both hustle and play hard every time they step on the court.  Neither needs a play called for them.  They are the type of players a coach like Popovich salivates over.

 

 

Getting rid of either without a better replacement available is counter-productive to good business and team management.



#8 JasonWll

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 09:07 AM

There are a few nice pieces in Toronto we could pick up in exchange for the Gastby...


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#9 BleedPurple&Gold

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 09:56 AM

what picks do we have in this year's draft?


Edited by BleedPurple&Gold, April 18, 2013 - 10:17 AM.

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#10 DanishLakerFan

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 10:13 AM

Whether we keep Clark AND Hill i think depends on how much the Buss' are willing to spend.

When they're so far into the luxury tax, every dollar spent on Clark is going to be equal to 3-4 dollar of tax. I guess, if they kept Clark on a back-loaded deal, like 2+2+5 million or similar, it would be possible.

But we would still need a starting-caliber wing, as well as a back-up guard.

 

My thinking is that they should look at what teams are willing to offer for the pieces that we have - all of them. Some pieces can be replaced, others cant. Jordan Hill is an awesome player, but as a 3rd or 4th big on a team that plays Dwight and Pau close to 70 minutes per game, we might be better of flipping him for an elite perimeter defender and then keep Clark and sign someone to the vets minimum.  

 

Also, Steve Blake's value is as high as it is ever going to be. Perhaps package him up with either Meeks or Hill and get back an impact player.

 

I'm not saying i would do these deals, i'm just saying that the Lakers should try to assemble the best team possible.



#11 epicwolf

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 10:14 AM

Yea Amnesty Kobe. What are you guys going to get with all that money for next year? A bunch of supporting players?  Awesome. So we trade Pau for a couple of bench warmers and amnesty kobe so we can have money to get a bunch of ok players. Lakers are going to be the next Orlando Magic!  Yay!!!


MDA is an offensive genius. I hope he sticks to his guns and keeps doing what he does best: Run and Gun. That's the only way to coach.


#12 KobeWillReturnTriumphant

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 11:22 AM

I think Pau needs to be traded regardless of how well he has played with Howard  the last few weeks and upcoming playoffs. At 32, Pau is probably going to want a costly, long term deal. Do you really want him in P&G when he's 35+?

 

I'm also hoping that Nash & Kobe (I'm a doubter on his comeback) decide to retire and open up a ton of cap space.

Ha.  Trade Pau so you have to pick up comparable parts in salaries...that may be longer than his?  Also hope for Kobe and Nash to retire?  You want Kobe to go out like he did?  The people on the roster are probably the best the Lakers will have until 2014. 



#13 UKUGA

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Posted April 18, 2013 - 11:51 AM

I think you hope that Nash does the noble thing and retires if he can't play.

Long-term, we want Dwight, Hill, Clark and a nice get in the summer of 2014.

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#14 DanishLakerFan

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Posted April 19, 2013 - 01:27 AM

I think you hope that Nash does the noble thing and retires if he can't play.

Long-term, we want Dwight, Hill, Clark and a nice get in the summer of 2014.

I case Nash is too injured to play next season, they'll obviously try to convince him to retire. Or they might wait until the end of next season and waive him using the stretch provision.






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