It irritates me when people say that because its just dreamers and wishers trying to sound optimistic with no sense of practicality.
Make a trade, gain momentum going into the playoffs and anything can happen.
The statistical fact is "anything" usually doesn't happen.
Since I was born 34 years ago in 1978 there have only been 10 different NBA Champions.
So throughout my life the NBA has averaged 29 teams in the league (34 years x 29 teams = 986).
Thats 986 opportunities for every team to have been the champion.
But only 10 have actually won the chip. Thats 1% of the total opportunities of every team per every year I have been on earth.
That doesn't sound like "anything can happen" at all.
What it actually sounds like is "the same thing keeps happening".
This is all subject to change if the new CBA somehow changes this. But I'm picking the Heat to win the title.
So that will mean in 35 years I have been living, still only 10 teams have won it all.
EDIT 2: from post #12 below
In regards to the Heat and Mavs winning their 1st chips.
Even if you erase those anomalies that are the Heat & Mavs winning their 1st chips it only changes the percentage by hundredths of a percentage point.
Its always 1% w/ or w/o the Heat or Mavs winning their first chip.
Whats funny is how theres a point of the Mavs winning was like some miracle.
But when the Heat won their first chip it was against the Mavs.
And when the Mavs won their first chip it was against the Heat.
The data proves itself. This is one of those times that stats can never be wrong.
Arguing is futile and based on personal opinions not factual data.
To prove my point further allow me to re state that I'm using a 34 year sample size that shows a greater extent of accurate data.
The ones arguing my point are using a sample size of only 5 years.
So to drive the facts home:
I just checked wiki for the entire list of NBA Champions since 1950. LINK
In the 61 years the NBA has existed there have only been 19 different teams/franchises that have won the championship.
With an average of 21 teams throughout those 61 years that's 1159 equal chances for each team to have a chance to win.
Again thats 1%. (actually 1.6%)
Its not even a half ass argument to say "anything can happen" when it most certainly doesn't.
Not in the entire history of the NBA.
EDIT 3: from post #13 below
In comparison to the USA's other premier sports,
A crazy coincidence is that the NFL has only had 19 Super Bowl Champs since the Super Bowl began in 1967.
So in 44 years theres been 19 different champions in a league that has averaged about 24 teams since then.
1056 chances total.
Since 1903 there have been 28 World Series Champions.
So in 108 years theres been 28 champs in a league that has averaged 23 teams since then.
2484 chances total.
EDIT 4 from post #14 below.
I do want to include stats that only include the NBA's pre draft "Territorial Rights" years.
That was how teams like Boston kept winning chips.
They had rights to the best players in the best colleges in their "territory". So they continued to receive the best players.
For example....Oscar Robertson went to the University of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Royals had territorial rights to him.
He wasnt allowed to play for any other team. That was the league rules then.
This is however reason to strengthen my reason and point that "anything" doesnt happen.
And in MLB before the Curt Flood ruling players like Micky Mantle and Joe DiMaggio were never allowed to leave their teams.
So no wonder why they won pennant after pennant.
But today its almost the same thing.
The biggest teams with the most money buy the best players during free agency so they continue to win.
Edited by LakersGAFan, February 03, 2012 - 09:12 AM.