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The reality behind the saying: "Anything can happen"


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#1 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 01:29 PM

Make a trade, gain momentum going into the playoffs and anything can happen.

It irritates me when people say that because its just dreamers and wishers trying to sound optimistic with no sense of practicality.

The statistical fact is "anything" usually doesn't happen.
Since I was born 34 years ago in 1978 there have only been 10 different NBA Champions.

So throughout my life the NBA has averaged 29 teams in the league (34 years x 29 teams = 986).
Thats 986 opportunities for every team to have been the champion.
But only 10 have actually won the chip. Thats 1% of the total opportunities of every team per every year I have been on earth.

That doesn't sound like "anything can happen" at all.
What it actually sounds like is "the same thing keeps happening".

This is all subject to change if the new CBA somehow changes this. But I'm picking the Heat to win the title.
So that will mean in 35 years I have been living, still only 10 teams have won it all.

EDIT 2: from post #12 below
In regards to the Heat and Mavs winning their 1st chips.
Even if you erase those anomalies that are the Heat & Mavs winning their 1st chips it only changes the percentage by hundredths of a percentage point.
Its always 1% w/ or w/o the Heat or Mavs winning their first chip.

Whats funny is how theres a point of the Mavs winning was like some miracle.
But when the Heat won their first chip it was against the Mavs.
And when the Mavs won their first chip it was against the Heat.

The data proves itself. This is one of those times that stats can never be wrong.
Arguing is futile and based on personal opinions not factual data.

To prove my point further allow me to re state that I'm using a 34 year sample size that shows a greater extent of accurate data.
The ones arguing my point are using a sample size of only 5 years.

So to drive the facts home:
I just checked wiki for the entire list of NBA Champions since 1950. LINK
In the 61 years the NBA has existed there have only been 19 different teams/franchises that have won the championship.
With an average of 21 teams throughout those 61 years that's 1159 equal chances for each team to have a chance to win.
Again thats 1%. (actually 1.6%)

Its not even a half ass argument to say "anything can happen" when it most certainly doesn't.
Not in the entire history of the NBA.

EDIT 3: from post #13 below
In comparison to the USA's other premier sports,

NFL
A crazy coincidence is that the NFL has only had 19 Super Bowl Champs since the Super Bowl began in 1967.
So in 44 years theres been 19 different champions in a league that has averaged about 24 teams since then.
1056 chances total.
1.7%

MLB
Since 1903 there have been 28 World Series Champions.
So in 108 years theres been 28 champs in a league that has averaged 23 teams since then.
2484 chances total.
4.3%

EDIT 4 from post #14 below.
I do want to include stats that only include the NBA's pre draft "Territorial Rights" years.
That was how teams like Boston kept winning chips.
They had rights to the best players in the best colleges in their "territory". So they continued to receive the best players.
For example....Oscar Robertson went to the University of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Royals had territorial rights to him.
He wasnt allowed to play for any other team. That was the league rules then.
This is however reason to strengthen my reason and point that "anything" doesnt happen.

And in MLB before the Curt Flood ruling players like Micky Mantle and Joe DiMaggio were never allowed to leave their teams.
So no wonder why they won pennant after pennant.

But today its almost the same thing.
The biggest teams with the most money buy the best players during free agency so they continue to win.

Edited by LakersGAFan, February 03, 2012 - 09:12 AM.


#2 Helljumper

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:00 PM

Yeah ... we're one of those ten teams right?

Clearly, no one's going to argue that "anything could happen" for another team. For example, everyone knows that even if the Bucks sneak into the playoffs, they have 0 chance of winning the title.

But we're not just some random team. We're the Los Angeles Lakers. For whatever reason, the basketball gods have continuously smiled down upon us. We have a reason to have faith/optimism. Stuff just usually ends up working out for us.
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#3 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:16 PM

Yeah ... we're one of those ten teams right?

Clearly, no one's going to argue that "anything could happen" for another team. For example, everyone knows that even if the Bucks sneak into the playoffs, they have 0 chance of winning the title.

But we're not just some random team. We're the Los Angeles Lakers. For whatever reason, the basketball gods have continuously smiled down upon us. We have a reason to have faith/optimism. Stuff just usually ends up working out for us.

yea, exactly. But I wasnt referring directly to the Lakers. I just posted it in Lakers talk by accident.

#4 Hollywood

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:18 PM

It irritates me when people say that because its just dreamers and wishers trying to sound optimistic with no sense of practicality.

The statistical fact is "anything" usually doesn't happen.
Since I was born 34 years ago in 1978 there have only been 10 different NBA Champions.

So throughout my life the NBA has averaged 29 teams in the league (34 years x 29 teams = 986).
Thats 986 opportunities for every team to have been the champion.
But only 10 have actually won the chip. Thats 1% of the total opportunities of every team per every year I have been on earth.

That doesn't sound like "anything can happen" at all.
What it actually sounds like is "the same thing keeps happening".

This is all subject to change if the new CBA somehow changes this. But I'm picking the Heat to win the title.
So that will mean in 35 years I have been living, still only 10 teams have won it all.

I meant to put this in NBA talk. Please move it mods. My bad. Thanks.


About 2 people thought dallas would win it all we all thought they would find some way to choke everyone hoped dallas would win but knew very well miami was going to win well guess what they won so anything can happen last time we had a shortened season knicks went to the finals they were 8 th seed by the way

Edited by Hollywood, February 02, 2012 - 02:19 PM.

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#5 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:30 PM

About 2 people thought dallas would win it all we all thought they would find some way to choke everyone hoped dallas would win but knew very well miami was going to win well guess what they won so anything can happen last time we had a shortened season knicks went to the finals they were 8 th seed by the way

it didn't surprise me the Mavs won at all. It shouldn't have surprised anybody. Mark Cuban is the George Steinbrenner of basketball. It was bound to happen eventually. And if the Mavs lost and the Heat had one it changes the percentage by hundredths. Still 1%
9 teams outta 986 instead of 10 outta 986
no big impact bro.

Edited by LakersGAFan, February 02, 2012 - 02:31 PM.


#6 Cowboys&LakersFan

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:50 PM

it didn't surprise me the Mavs won at all. It shouldn't have surprised anybody. Mark Cuban is the George Steinbrenner of basketball. It was bound to happen eventually. And if the Mavs lost and the Heat had one it changes the percentage by hundredths. Still 1%
9 teams outta 986 instead of 10 outta 986
no big impact bro.

C'mon man. EVERYONE thought they would be a 1st round exit just like they had been for so many years and they won the NBA title.
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#7 NYCLakerfan

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 02:50 PM

Realistically in this lockout shorten season it's gonna come down to who's hot and who gets the best matchups, if most of our guys play their best ball in in the post season and we get four favorable matchups we can win. But the Championship is wide open this year more than ever imo there's prob like 8 teams in the league who can possibly pull this [expletive] out.

And like someone else said nobody besides the Dallas players and maybe some of their fans thought they'd win especially since they got swept the year before. A matter a fact I remember the sentiment among a lot of ppl was their best chance was in 06 and 07 but they blew and Dirk is too soft and doesn't play enough D to lead a team to a ring I'm not even gonna front I believed that myself too.

Edited by NYCLakerfan, February 02, 2012 - 02:51 PM.


#8 Hollywood

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 06:15 PM

C'mon man. EVERYONE thought they would be a 1st round exit just like they had been for so many years and they won the NBA title.


Got to agree damn! I cant belive i said that
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#9 Game

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Posted February 02, 2012 - 10:19 PM

people saying anything can happen are really just saying, the unlikely is possible...which by definition is true...

pistons beating the lakers for a ring

giants over the pats in the super bowl (last time...and hopefully this time)

dallas winning it all last year?

these are things that seemed unlikely almost up until they happened...just a few random examples of what these people mean

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#10 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 03, 2012 - 04:50 AM

yet the stats remain true that only 10 teams won chips in 34 years. So why doesn't someone explain the randomness in that?

#11 NYCLakerfan

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Posted February 03, 2012 - 05:40 AM

yet the stats remain true that only 10 teams won chips in 34 years. So why doesn't someone explain the randomness in that?


So what that doesn't mean other teams can never win it didn't stop Dallas last year or Miami in 06.

Like I said it's gonna come down to match ups and who gets hot at the best time.

Edited by NYCLakerfan, February 03, 2012 - 05:44 AM.


#12 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 03, 2012 - 07:36 AM

So what that doesn't mean other teams can never win it didn't stop Dallas last year or Miami in 06.

Like I said it's gonna come down to match ups and who gets hot at the best time.

But even if you erase those anomalies that are the Heat & Mavs winning their 1st chips it only changes the percentage by hundredths of a percentage point.
Its always 1% w/ or w/o the Heat or Mavs winning their first chip.

Whats funny is how theres a point of the Mavs winning was like some miracle.
But when the Heat won their first chip it was against the Mavs.
And when the Mavs won their first chip it was against the Heat.

The data proves itself. This is one of those times that stats can never be wrong.
Arguing is futile and based on personal opinions not factual data.

To prove my point further allow me to re state that I'm using a 34 year sample size that shows a greater extent of accurate data.
The ones arguing my point are using a sample size of only 5 years.

So to drive the facts home:
I just checked wiki for the entire list of NBA Champions since 1950. LINK
In the 61 years the NBA has existed there have only been 19 different teams/franchises that have won the championship.
With an average of 21 teams throughout those 61 years that's 1159 equal chances for each team to have a chance to win.
Again thats 1%. (actually 1.6%)

Its not even a half ass argument to say "anything can happen" when it most certainly doesn't.
Not in the entire history of the NBA.

Edited by LakersGAFan, February 03, 2012 - 08:25 AM.


#13 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 03, 2012 - 08:43 AM

In comparison to the USA's other premier sports,

NFL
A crazy coincidence is that the NFL has only had 19 Super Bowl Champs since the Super Bowl began in 1967.
So in 44 years theres been 19 different champions in a league that has averaged about 24 teams since then.
1056 chances total.
1.7%
LINK

MLB
Since 1903 there have been 28 World Series Champions.
So in 108 years theres been 28 champs in a league that has averaged 23 teams since then.
2484 chances total.
4.3%
LINK1
LINK2

#14 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 03, 2012 - 09:02 AM

I do want to include stats that only include the NBA's pre draft "Territorial Rights" years.
That was how teams like Boston kept winning chips.
They had rights to the best players in the best colleges in their "territory". So they continued to receive the best players.
For example....Oscar Robertson went to the University of Cincinnati and the Cincinnati Royals had territorial rights to him.
He wasnt allowed to play for any other team. That was the league rules then.
This is however reason to strengthen my reason and point that "anything" doesnt happen.

And in MLB before the Curt Flood ruling players like Micky Mantle and Joe DiMaggio were never allowed to leave their teams.
So no wonder why they won pennant after pennant.

But today its almost the same thing.
The biggest teams with the most money buy the best players during free agency so they continue to win

Edited by LakersGAFan, February 03, 2012 - 09:13 AM.


#15 K0be10-11

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Posted February 05, 2012 - 06:54 AM

I think it just means anyone can win, look for example. The Dallas Mavricks wern't the favorites to win last year, they just got on a roll at a good time, and like played there best basketball.
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#16 NYCLakerfan

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Posted February 05, 2012 - 12:37 PM

But even if you erase those anomalies that are the Heat & Mavs winning their 1st chips it only changes the percentage by hundredths of a percentage point.
Its always 1% w/ or w/o the Heat or Mavs winning their first chip.

Whats funny is how theres a point of the Mavs winning was like some miracle.
But when the Heat won their first chip it was against the Mavs.
And when the Mavs won their first chip it was against the Heat.

The data proves itself. This is one of those times that stats can never be wrong.
Arguing is futile and based on personal opinions not factual data.

To prove my point further allow me to re state that I'm using a 34 year sample size that shows a greater extent of accurate data.
The ones arguing my point are using a sample size of only 5 years.

So to drive the facts home:
I just checked wiki for the entire list of NBA Champions since 1950. LINK
In the 61 years the NBA has existed there have only been 19 different teams/franchises that have won the championship.
With an average of 21 teams throughout those 61 years that's 1159 equal chances for each team to have a chance to win.
Again thats 1%. (actually 1.6%)

Its not even a half ass argument to say "anything can happen" when it most certainly doesn't.
Not in the entire history of the NBA.


So what those stats don't dictate which franchises are gonna win rings in the future and even they did I'd say were in good shape because statistically speaking weve won the most rings and had the most finals appearances so by your logic were most likely gonna win a ring this year just based off of past league stats.

#17 LakersGAFan

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Posted February 06, 2012 - 06:50 AM

So what those stats don't dictate which franchises are gonna win rings in the future and even they did I'd say were in good shape because statistically speaking weve won the most rings and had the most finals appearances so by your logic were most likely gonna win a ring this year just based off of past league stats.

yea. thats true. but think of the other contenders/favs right now to win it all.
Miami
Chicago
Dallas (as defending champs)
Boston (old)
LAL (old)
San Antonio (somehow)
Portland (not likely)

^All have won before.

Only OKC is a real contender who hasnt won a chip b4.
So if OKC wins they would be the 20th team.
The overall percentage would then raise to 1.88%. Still not even 2%.

#18 LakersGAFan

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Posted May 04, 2013 - 06:26 PM

I still believe in all the factual information I gave in this thread.
The Heat most likely will win again, theyre 3rd. If not them the Spurs win their 5th.
In NFL Baltimore won their third.
In MLB the Giants won their second.

The statistical analysis proves that nothing ever changes.



#19 PhillyLaker24

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Posted May 04, 2013 - 06:32 PM

Wait your a laker fan that is complaining the same teams always win the chip?? We have 16 of them this isnt something for us to have a gripe about. This topic belongs on a small market teams board.


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#20 BleedPurple&Gold

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Posted May 04, 2013 - 06:36 PM

I still believe in all the factual information I gave in this thread.
The Heat most likely will win again, theyre 3rd. If not them the Spurs win their 5th.
In NFL Baltimore won their third.
In MLB the Giants won their second.

The statistical analysis proves that nothing ever changes.

 

Won our second not third


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