136 replies to this topic

[Brand New]

GM1:Lowe Vs Hamels
GM2.Billengsley vs Myers
GM3:Kuroda vs Moyer

I'm guessing that would be the match ups. As for a game 4 I think it might be Kershaw or Maddux against Blanton. The line up won't really change much.

The Phillies are a better hitting team, their pitching is not that great. Hopefully we could steal one game over there and try to win both games in LA. Best of 7.

Go Dodgers!

[Icker]

4 GAME SWEEP

[MDI]

as long as we keep Rollins off the basepaths we should be fine.

Burrell is the guy im worried about.

You can't stop what Utley and Howard will do...just can't they're too good...let them have their solo shots or whatever...its the guys around them. Pay more attention to Burrell and make sure Rollins doesn't get on base

we need to get to their starters early so that we can get into their weak bullpen

should be an interesting series

i say dodgers in 7

[Aceis²FresH]

Steal one of the first games, and we'll be in good shape.

[Dodgers2213]

Howard can be stopped
Burrell is red hot and a major threat
Utley is utley


I think the key factor to the series is whether or not the Dodger bats show up. We need to stay ahead of the phillies and never play catch up

Edited by Ned Colletti's Mustache, October 05, 2008 - 03:41 PM.

[trodgers]

It's interesting to see the takes of non-Phillies fans. Burrell is an inconsistent hitter and is far from the biggest threat now or at any time. Offensively, Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino are the threats...in that order. Then comes the guys who get timely hits like Burrell, Werth, and Dobbs.

As for the weak bullpen:
Eyre as a situational pitcher: 1.88 ERA, .163 BAA
Lidge 1.95 ERA, 41/41 saves, .198 BAA
Romero 2.75 ERA, .197 BAA
Durbin 2.87 ERA
Madson 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Condrey 3.26 ERA
Seanez 3.53 ERA
Happ 3.69 ERA

I'm obviously a bit concerned about this as the teams split the regular season series, but I think the Phils can take it.

[MDI]

It's interesting to see the takes of non-Phillies fans. Burrell is an inconsistent hitter and is far from the biggest threat now or at any time. Offensively, Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino are the threats...in that order. Then comes the guys who get timely hits like Burrell, Werth, and Dobbs.

As for the weak bullpen:
Eyre as a situational pitcher: 1.88 ERA, .163 BAA
Lidge 1.95 ERA, 41/41 saves, .198 BAA
Romero 2.75 ERA, .197 BAA
Durbin 2.87 ERA
Madson 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Condrey 3.26 ERA
Seanez 3.53 ERA
Happ 3.69 ERA

I'm obviously a bit concerned about this as the teams split the regular season series, but I think the Phils can take it.

what were their ERAs against us?

[Dodgers2213]

It's interesting to see the takes of non-Phillies fans. Burrell is an inconsistent hitter and is far from the biggest threat now or at any time. Offensively, Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino are the threats...in that order. Then comes the guys who get timely hits like Burrell, Werth, and Dobbs.

As for the weak bullpen:
Eyre as a situational pitcher: 1.88 ERA, .163 BAA
Lidge 1.95 ERA, 41/41 saves, .198 BAA
Romero 2.75 ERA, .197 BAA
Durbin 2.87 ERA
Madson 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Condrey 3.26 ERA
Seanez 3.53 ERA
Happ 3.69 ERA

I'm obviously a bit concerned about this as the teams split the regular season series, but I think the Phils can take it.

Ryan Howard k's more than i [expletive] to porn
We have plenty of pitchers who will fool howard to chase the outside breaking pitches

Burrell dominated the Brewers. He is red hot and a current threat

we need to get to the Phillies starters early. If we manage to beat Cole Hamels, I think we have a big shot at taking the series

and of course (the common saying) our arms need to show up like the Cubs series

[trodgers]

what were their ERAs against us?

Apparently significantly better than you think.

G1: Dodgers 8, Phillies 6
xKendrick 3.1 IP, 7 ER
xCondrey 2.1 IP, 1 ER

G2: Dodgers 4, Phillies 3
xHamels 7 IP, 2 ER
xDurbin 1 IP, 1 ER
xRomero .1 IP, 1 ER

G3: Dodgers 7, Phillies 6
xBlanton 5 IP, 4 ER
xMadson 2 IP, 0 ER
xDurbin .2 IP, 2 ER
xRomero .1 IP, 0 ER
xCondrey .1 IP, 1 ER

G4: Dodgers 3, Phillies 1
xMyers 7 IP, 3 ER
xEyre 1 IP, 0 ER

G5: Phillies 8, Dodgers 1
xKendrick 5.2 IP, 1 ER
xDurbin 1.1 IP, 0 ER
xMadson 1 IP, 0 ER
xEyre 1 IP, 0 Er

G6: Phillies 9, Dodgers 2
xHamels 7 IP, 2 ER
xEyre 1 IP, 0 ER
xSeanez 1 IP, 0 ER

G7: Phillies 5, Dodgers 2 (11 innings)
xBlanton 6 IP, 1 ER
xRomero .2 IP, 1 ER
xMadson 1.1 IP, 0 ER
xLidge 1 IP, 0 ER
xDurbin 2 IP, 0 ER

G8: Phillies 5, Dodgers 0
xMyers 7 IP, 0 ER
xRomero 1 IP, 0 ER
xCondrey 1 IP, 0 ER

So in 8 games:
Phillies: 43 runs
Dodgers: 27 runs
Phillies team ERA: 3.38

Playoff Starters:
Hamels 14 IP, 4 ER, 2.57 ERA
Blanton 11 IP, 5 ER, 4.09 ERA
Myers 14 IP, 3 ER, 1.92 ERA
--2.77 ERA

Playoff Relievers:
Romero 2.2 IP, 2 ER, 6.75 ERA
Durbin 5 IP, 3 ER, 5.40 ERA
Madson 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA
Condrey 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4.90 ERA
Eyre 3 IP, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA
Seanez 1 IP, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA
Lidge 1 IP, 0 ER, 0.00 ERA
--3.05 ERA

Not on Playoff Roster:
Kendrick 9 IP, 8 ER

Should be fun, guys.

[Tobias Fünke]

No matter if the Dodgers win in a sweep, or the Dodgers win it in 7 games(is there really any other option?) I hope it's exciting!

[Varsity Optimism]

HYAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH YOYER YOYER YOYER!

[Jaime Quintanilla]

Thursday seems soooo far away. Hopefully, the strive is still there. What am I talking about? DOYERS!!!

[MDI]

i hope the philles make the playoffs so that we can face Kendrick again

http://lakernation.c...h...c=251&st=20

Damn remember this trodgers?

and he's left off haha


we could use the rest

[trodgers]

http://lakernation.c...h...c=251&st=20

Damn remember this trodgers?

and he's left off haha


we could use the rest

Yeah, Kendrick flat out sucked to finish the season. It was a good move by management.

[DarthRekal]

Dodgers in 5

[Dodgers2213]

Fan Graphs did their own comparison and it's pretty solid:

http://www.fangraphs...ies-and-dodgers


In Game 3 of the division series, the oft-frustrating Dave Bush shut down the powerful Phillies offense to bring the Brewers-Phillies series to 2-1. Yesterday, another unlikely “hero” emerged in the form of Joe Blanton, who managed to walk nobody and fan seven hitters, allowing just one run over 6+ innings. The Phillies won the series, their first playoff series win since 1993, and advanced to the NLCS to take on the Dodgers. The Torre Gang swept the Cubs in their division series, thanks to solid pitching and timely hitting with two outs. This sets up quite the interesting matchup given that the two teams played each other eight times after Manny Ramirez was acquired, with the home team sweeping a four-game set each time.

The Dodgers did not have Rafael Furcal in either series, but since both offenses are impressive, this will likely come down to which starting pitchers can truly perform well enough to not only shut down the opposing offense but also limit the bullpen usage. Not that either bullpen is bad, but I am sure fans have more confidence in their starters facing tough hitters in crucial situations than, say, Ryan Madson or Cory Wade, regardless of how effective each has been. Let’s take a look at the potential rotations for both teams, using their regular season statistics:

Phillies
Cole Hamels: 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 76.0% LOB, 3.70 K/BB, 2.83 WPA/LI
Brett Myers: 4.55 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 72.6% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, -0.40 WPA/LI
Jamie Moyer: 3.71 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.33 WHIP, 76.6% LOB, 1.98 K/BB, 1.01 WPA/LI
Joe Blanton: 4.20 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 74.4% LOB, 1.58 K/BB, -0.07 WPA/LI

Blanton’s stats are strictly in a Phillies uniform. Brett Myers is a much better pitcherthan his ERA, FIP, and WPA/LI would indicate, and since returning to the majors at the end of July, has been fantastic in all but two starts. Unfortunately for the Phillies, those starts were his final two of the regular season. Fortunately, however, he rebounded quite nicely and tossed a gem against the Brewers in the division series. Moyer was not very accurate in Game 3, and was squeezed a bit by the home plate umpire, so he is the wild card of the Phillies rotation.

If he is getting calls and pitching in and out like he did during the regular season, he will be very tough. If, however, he struggles with control and is not getting calls, there honestly is no point in keeping him in the game. 82-mph fastballs might be tough when the ump is generous with the strike zone, but as he has to adjust to a tighter zone, they become very hittable. Quick sidenote: all four of these guys have 10-letters in their names.

Dodgers
Derek Lowe: 3.24 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 70.8% LOB, 3.27 K/BB, 2.61 WPA/LI
Chad Billingsley: 3.14 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 78% LOB, 2.51 K/BB, 0.91 WPA/LI
Hiroki Kuroda: 3.73 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 68.5% LOB, 2.76 K/BB, 0.62 WPA/LI
Clayton Kershaw: 4.26 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 1.50 WHIP, 75.7% LOB, 1.92 K/BB, -0.61 WPA/LI

Derek Lowe had an outstanding season and is going to land a hefty contract this off-season. His ability to strike batters out, keep balls in play on the ground, and limit his walks deemed him over two and a half wins better than an average pitcher this year. If you are unsure just how good that is, look at Cole Hamels‘ season, a 2.83 WPA/LI, and it should become clear how good Lowe’s season really turned out. Lowe is always tough on the Phillies lineup, primarily due to their reliance on the longball for runs. They will need to steal bases and be more patient with him, rather than attempt to launch everything in orbit.

Billingsley is very interesting because his season is pretty much what fans in Philadelphia hoped for from Brett Myers. Both are power-pitchers with nasty breaking pitches. They also both had nearly identical K/BB ratios and WHIPs this season. Whether or not it speaks volumes to Lowe’s effectiveness against the team or Billingsley’s repertoire—if there is anything the Phillies offense does well it is hit 93+ mph fastballs—and lack of experience, the word around Philadelphia is that Billingsley should be a much easier game than low. I would highly doubt either game will be easy, but Myers-Billingsley is very intriguing because both pitchers essentially rely on the same ingredients to concoct their outs-recipe.

Kuroda won’t win the rookie of the year award but he should merit some love in that regard. Despite a well below average strand rate of 68.5%, Hiroki produced just a 3.73 ERA. His controllable skills were even better, earning him a 3.59 FIP. The fourth spot in their rotation will likely go to Clayton Kershaw, as he is a lefty while the other three are righties. Torre seems enamored with using Greg Maddux out of the bullpen, but I would not be surprised if Maddux gets the call at some point in this series.

This has all the makings of a very fun series, with top-notch pitching, impressive starting rotations, and both finesse and flames out of the bullpen. I firmly believe that if the Dodgers had Rafael Furcal and Manny Ramirez all season long, they would have won more games than the Cubs, or at least been within striking distance. They are not the team they were in May, and are much more potent now, with a scarier 1-8 than the Phillies. If Myers is on, then both Game 1 and Game 2 will essentially see ace vs. ace. I can honestly see this going all seven games, but either team will need to fire on all cylinders to take the series, and neither can get satisfied after taking a lead.

[Brand New]

IMO, this is going to be a long series.

[West Coast]

The Phillies are the team that concerned me way before the playoffs started.

Yes we did beat them in LA. But they completely owned us in Philly and we did have Manny too. BUT the Dodgers are playing a lot better then they were during that 8 game losing streak, plus we have Furcal back.

Its gonna be a hard fought series. But I say the Dodgers win it in 5.

[trodgers]

Phils in 1. That's right.

[Jaime Quintanilla]

Phils in 1. That's right.

Ye with little faith.